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☆ Interest rates: It’s a mystery when the Fed will begin to cut them
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington CNN —Nowadays, it’s anyone’s guess when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year — if at all. Fed officials are meeting this week, starting Tuesday, to discuss rates and set policy. That guidance will be key for market observers who clearly have divergent views on interest rates. Forecasts from major Wall Street banks on the first rate cut are all over the place: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect the first cut in July, while Wells Fargo is betting on September. Some Fed policymakers, meanwhile, have even floated the possibility of a rate hike, instead of a cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Jerome Powell, “, ” Kathleen Grace, John Towfighi, That’s, nearshoring, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Morgan Stanley, Read, Cindy Westman, —, Brian Fung, Jason Carroll, I’ll, ”, Westman, ’, Westman — Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Bank of America, CNN, Labor Department, Manufacturing, Commerce Department, Program, Social Locations: Washington, Wells, Mexico, —, China, United States, Eureka , Illinois

☆ US and China are buying into Mexico’s manufacturing moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

CNN —As US supply chains decouple from China, Mexico’s manufacturing sector is emerging as a winner. Ramos said Mexico and China have been competing for the US manufacturing market for years, but amid a shifting US-China relationship, Mexico looks poised to pull ahead. Those exports were driven by manufacturing, which comprises 40% of Mexico’s economy, according to Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the US were down 20% in 2023, compared to 2022. Analysts at Morgan Stanley see the value of Mexico’s exports to the United States growing from $455 billion to about $609 billion in the next five years.

Persons: That’s, nearshoring, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, Ramos, Morgan Stanley, Katherine Tai, CNN’s Julia Chatterley, Tai, United States Jose Luis Gonzalez, Xeneta, Peter Sand, Jose Enrique Sevilla, John Raines, Goldman’s Ramos, Biden, Raquel Buenrostro, —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, ”, Global’s, Raines, Christoffer Enemaerke, “, Tesla, Elon Musk, Julio Cesar Aguilar, BYD doesn’t, RBC’s Enemaerke, Michael Nam Organizations: CNN, Manufacturing, Commerce Department, US Trade, General Motors, Ford, Reuters, Shipping, Container Trade, Xeneta, Moody’s Analytics, P Global Market Intelligence, steelworkers, “, Global’s Sevilla, Macip, RBC, Getty, BYD, ” Sevilla, Monterrey Locations: China, Mexico, Canada, North America, US, Ciudad Juarez, United States, Pittsburgh, Mexican, Monterrey, ”, Nuevo Leon, Asia

☆ Mexico's Election Year Deficit Plan Fuels Fear Over Finances
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Sept. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +3 min

By Dave Graham and Diego OréMEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The Mexican government's plan to run up the biggest budget deficit in decades during the 2024 general election year could put pressure on public finances and eventually threaten its credit rating, analysts said on Monday. Lopez Obrador last week backed former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum as his party's candidate to succeed him. Historic data show the projected budget deficit for 2024 will be the highest since 1988 as a proportion of GDP. The government's higher spending plans should bolster Latin America's second-biggest economy, which has outpaced forecasts this year, brightening the outlook for 2024. He also noted that since Mexico's current account deficit is currently considerably lower than foreign direct investment, there was a pool of untapped demand in the economy that the government could temporarily offset via higher spending.

Persons: Dave Graham, Diego, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Lopez, Patricia Terrazas, Lopez Obrador, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Gabriela Siller, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, Ramos, Raul Feliz, Feliz, Diego Ore, Noe Torres, Jamie Freed Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Lopez Obrador's, Action Party, PAN, Mexico City Mayor, Banco Base, Bank of Locations: MEXICO, Mexico, Bank of Mexico, Mexico City

REUTERS/Raquel Cunha Acquire Licensing RightsMEXICO CITY, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The Mexican government's plan to run up the biggest budget deficit in decades during the 2024 general election year could put pressure on public finances and eventually threaten its credit rating, analysts said on Monday. Lopez Obrador last week backed former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum as his party's candidate to succeed him. Historic data show the projected budget deficit for 2024 will be the highest since 1988 as a proportion of GDP. The government's higher spending plans should bolster Latin America's second-biggest economy, which has outpaced forecasts this year, brightening the outlook for 2024. He also noted that since Mexico's current account deficit is currently considerably lower than foreign direct investment, there was a pool of untapped demand in the economy that the government could temporarily offset via higher spending.

Persons: Mexico's Finance Ministry Rogelio Ramirez de la O, Marcela Guerra, Raquel Cunha, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Lopez, Patricia Terrazas, Lopez Obrador, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Gabriela Siller, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, Ramos, Raul Feliz, Feliz, Dave Graham, Diego Ore, Noe Torres, Jamie Freed Organizations: Mexico's Finance Ministry, Mexican, REUTERS, Lopez Obrador's, Action Party, PAN, Mexico City Mayor, Banco Base, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Mexico City, Mexico, MEXICO, Bank of Mexico

MEXICO CITY, July 3 (Reuters) - Mexico brought in close to $5.7 billion in remittances in May, central bank data showed on Monday, breaking a monthly record that analysts cautioned was softened by the recent strength of the peso versus the dollar. While Mexico records remittances in dollars, as most of the funds come from the United States, "a strong peso hurts remittances," said Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos. Given the peso's appreciation against the dollar, when measured in local currency, remittances actually declined 2.2% year-on-year, Ramos said. Last year, remittances to Mexico from abroad hit a record high of $58.5 billion, making Mexico the No. Despite the blow from the "super peso," the dollar amount of remittances sent in May rose almost 11% year-on-year.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Mexico's, Ramos, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Monex, Kylie Madry, Brendan O'Boyle, Christina Fincher, Hugh Lawson Organizations: MEXICO CITY, U.S, Monex, BBVA, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Mexico, United States, Mexican, India

The drain in hard currency sparked panic earlier in the year, with Bolivians forming lines outside banks to withdraw dollars. Bond yields spiked sharply and in May the government was forced to sell half of its $2.6 billion gold reserves to raise cash. A major drought in Argentina has hammered grains output and reserves, imperiling a $44 billion debt deal with the International Monetary Fund. "The model is now shifting towards a very big state, a tax-and-spend approach," he said. "It has calmed people a bit... but that amount (gained from the gold reserves sale), $1.3 billion, is not enough for Bolivia," said local financial analyst Jaime Dunn.

Persons: Read, LA, Evo Morales, Jose Gabriel Espinoza, Marcelo Montenegro, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, spender, Jaime Dunn, Reuters Graphics Espinoza, Morales, Raúl Cortés Fernández, Daniel Ramos, Adam Jourdan, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Departmental Association of Coca Producers, LA PAZ, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Bolivian, Graphics, Banco, Reuters Graphics, MAS, Thomson Locations: La Paz, Bolivia, Bolivian, America, Argentina, Peru, Brazil, Chile, Colombia

☆ Analysis: Latin America, after record tightening, could lead way on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Marion Giraldo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The small South American country of Uruguay has already cut rates, by 25 basis points in April. Chile's central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 11.25% last week, but said if recent positive trends continue, it could begin cutting the rate in the short term. Forecasts are pointing to a rate cut next month, said Cesar Guzman, macroeconomic analyst at Santiago-based Grupo Securities. Even there, however, the central bank opted to hold rates steady in June as monthly inflation slowed for the first time in half a year. "Colombia and Mexico will be the last ones to cut rates, possibly in the fourth quarter."

Persons: Joan Domene, Reuters Graphics Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Cesar Guzman, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Andres Pardo, Marion Giraldo, Natalia Ramos, Fabian Cambero, Nelson Bocanegra, Anthony Esposito, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: MEXICO CITY, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, America, Oxford, Reuters Graphics, Grupo Securities, Reuters, Capital Economics, XP Investments, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, American, Uruguay, Santiago, COLOMBIA, America, Argentina, Colombia, Bogota

☆ Rising consumer prices in Mexico eased to a 17-month low in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

February's inflation rate stood at 7.62%. Still, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 8.09% from 8.29% the previous month. Month-on-month, Mexico's headline consumer price index rose by 0.27% in March, just under the 0.31% forecast in a Reuters poll. The latest data came ahead of a virtual meeting Wednesday between Latin American leaders from Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Colombia, to discuss measures aimed at combating rising prices in the region. Last week, Mexico's central bank hiked its key interest rate to 11.25%, but moderating the pace of its tightening cycle.

☆ Mexico inflation eases to 17-month low of 6.85% in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 5 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation slowed in March by more than expected to 6.85%, the lowest rate in nearly 1-1/2 years, although core price pressures remained elevated, data from national statistics agency INEGI showed on Wednesday. The March reading was the lowest since October 2021, and came in below the consensus forecast of 6.90%, as determined by a Reuters poll. Still, a measure of core inflation, which strips out some volatile items, slowed less than anticipated to 8.09% from 8.29% the previous month. Month-on-month, Mexico's headline consumer price index rose by 0.27%, less than the 0.31% forecast in the Reuters poll. Banxico has raised rates by 725 basis points since its rate-hiking cycle started in June 2021 to combat inflation.

Far from ignoring Lula's challenges to control the risks of this institutional shock, investors and analysts said however that the focus remains on fiscal issues when assessing the new government in the long term. If the new parameters are considered weak by the market, it could renew fears of fiscal dominance and prevent the BCB from easing." Discussions of the new fiscal framework are key under Lula's administration, after policymakers have highlighted inflationary risks arising from leftist President-elect's 168 billion reais ($32 billion) spending proposal to meet campaign promises. "The unsettled and deeply divided political environment and related high social tension keeps risk premia high and could undermine overall governability." (.JPMEGDBRAR)A mobilized opposition with the "potential to turn violent" is the main conclusion from Sunday's protests for the political risk advisory Eurasia Group.

That would surpass the October 2020 peak of 89% in the central bank series dating back to 2006. "It reduces the degree of freedom for the central bank to manage monetary policy," said Ramos. Brazil's central bank has held interest rates at 13.75% since August, after 12 straight hikes that lifted rates from a 2% record low in March 2021. Lula campaigned openly against the constitutional spending cap that limits spending growth to inflation. The proposal also removes some public investments from the cap, opening space for another 23 billion reais in public spending next year.

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